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Tuesday, January 1, 2013

PASSING NOTES ON OLE MISS


It’s crazy how quickly time flies around the holidays and the BBVA Compass Bowl takes place already on Saturday between the Panthers and The Ole Miss Rebels from the almighty SEC.  The SEC may not be as powerful as some of the past years (seriously, some of the last few years were just insane), but they are still far and away the best conference in college football and it is not close, so this will be a very tough match up for Pitt.  The game will also be a basic away game for Pitt for the 1PM kickoff in Birmingham, AL.  Not only is the location much closer to Ole Miss’ campus than up in Oakland, but the fan base is passionate and they have eaten up a lot of tickets.  It won’t be a real away game, but it will feel very far from a neutral site game.  I can’t speak for the players, but I do think this helps get them ready.  Going to Birmingham for three straight years can get boring and I think a big crowd and some intensity will help.

Confession time…I was very excited when the Rebels were announced as Pitt’s opponent this year.  Not only are they in the SEC conference, but I have always been somewhat drawn to Alabama and Ole Miss, while remaining a Pitt fan.  Alabama speaks for itself…they used to play Penn State when I was a kid and I would love when they would emerge victorious.  Ole Miss is harder to explain.  Maybe it is the uniforms, which I love, or it’s the tradition of The Grove…or the fact that they have some REALLY hot female fans..whatever it is..I kind of like Ole Miss.  If you have not read Clay Travis’ Dixieland Delight, pick it up…it is a great read and paints a great picture of game day in Oxford, MS.

PLEASE NOTE PITT MALE STUDENTS: I ALREADY TRIED TO TELL YOU TO GO DOWN THERE TO MEET SOME OF THESE SOUTHERN BELLES…SO IF YOU ARE NOT…THAT’S YOUR FAULT.

Alright, time to pass some notes on the Rebels.  As an overview, they finished 6-6 and won the Egg Bowl over Mississippi State in the last game to become bowl eligible.  Hugh Freeze is in his first year as head coach and really seems to have excited the fan base and the team itself.  Ole Miss ranks 47th in passing, 55th in rushing, 50th in points for and 67th in points against.  The Rebels also are not penalized very often, so Pitt will have to CREATE Ole Miss mistakes, because the players are disciplined.

The offense that Ole Miss runs is a spread offense and headed up by Sophomore QB, Bo Wallace.  Wallace is a big boy and has 2,843 yards passing with 19 TDs, 15 picks, and has been sacked 27 times. Wallace will take off from time to time, as he has run for 363 yards and 8 TDs this season, however if the QB runs in the spread, the Rebels do like to bring in Junior Barry Brunetti to take care of that, so you will see two QBs.   The 15 INTs and 27 sacks should have the Pitt defense licking their chops as that is something they have done well in this season.  Aaron Donald and Tyrone Ezell will have to continue their great play if Pitt wants to slow down the offense.

Slowing down the offense will be a tough chore as the Rebels LOVE to run this scheme up tempo…ESPECIALLY after they gain a first down.  If Pitt should pin Ole Miss deep in their own end, look for the Rebels to take a few shots deep, as they also are aggressive when put in that position. When Wallace does something like that, he usually looks for Sophomore WR Donte Moncrief.  Moncrief is a burner and a VERY good receiver, who is coming into his own, so the strong Pitt defensive backs had better bring their best on Saturday if they want to contain him. Moncrief leads the team with 60 receptions for 948 yards and 10 TDs. Complementing Moncrief is Sophomore WR Vince Sanders with 34 catches of his own for 465 yards and 3 TDs.

When Ole Miss keeps the ball on the ground, Junior Jeff Scott leads the way with 828 yards and 6 TDs. Scott is part of a one-two punch that the Rebels use and they will bring in speedy Senior RB, Randall Mackey, who has chipped in with 4 TDs this season.  Don’t forget that I mentioned earlier, Wallace and Brunetti also will tote the rock at times.  Wallace does not look like he can run, but don’t be fooled by his size…just ask LSU.

T he defense is a little undersized and Pitt could take advantage of that on the Ole Miss front seven. I said COULD.  The front seven may be undersized, but they are aggressive and very active.  They are led by Freshman LB Denzel Nkemdiche.  Nkemdiche is of the mold that he can cover and stick his nose into the scrums.  Among the other active players up front are Jason Jones (wearing thefamed #38), Gilbert Pena (one of my favorites while watching some of their games this year), and EJ Epperson, among others.  The defense is a 4-3 style and they enjoy bringing the heat on third downs, so Tino will need to be aware of that.  We don’t want any of those little 29 yard sacks on Saturday.

As mentioned, this will be a tough test for Pitt on Saturday.  Bowl games are VERY difficult to predict, as you never know which team is there to play and play hard, and which are there to take in the sites and party a little too much. The Panthers should have the services back of WR Cam Saddler, which is nice since he is a fifth year senior.  Ole Miss does turn the ball over and take sacks, so Pitt will need to create a few of those and take advantage.  It will be a nice measuring stick to see where Pitt is heading into next season, with a large recruiting class also coming in for Paul Chryst.  I see Ole Miss as the favorite here and I think they will win with the help of their active front seven throughout the game and a slight home field advantage.  Final Score: Ole Miss 27 Pitt 17.  The good news Panther fans is that I have sucked something fierce in predictions this year…so there’s that.

Final note…super prospect Tyler Boyd will announce his decision this weekend as well…supposedly.  Pitt is the favorite, BUT he could postpone the announcement as he is saying he wants to take more visits.  Landing Boyd would really help cushion the Foster news from a few weeks ago.

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